Philosophy Hurts Your Head

The blog of a cranky Philosophy PhD Student from Newcastle, Australia.

The Foresight Exchange Prediction Market

Posted by Sam D on February 1, 2006

I had been going over interesting stuff on the web and rediscovered this site.
FX, as it is know, is a game, (in the style of a futures market,) where participants can bet (with fake money) on the probability of future events, and/or make claims of their own about the future. Wikipedia on FX.

Now this might seem a bit geeky and possibly so grossly inaccurate that it gives no useful information. But I was watching a claim related to the price of crude oil last year, a claim that it would hit some huge high or other. The FX market for this claim went through the roof several days in advance of the ‘real’ market. Did it predict this riseor cause it? I don’t know. But it might be worth watching.

I was thinking that it I, and some of the people from Dialectic should put together some claims (possibly of a philosophical nature) and see how the FX community reacts to them.


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